Corona-steria

The following is my reply to a poster on the Q tree on the exponential numbers of the corona virus,  this needs to be said, and you all know me, I can’t keep my big mouth opinions to my self.

First, I want to tell you all that I am a student of statistics and probability.  All statistics are based on your point of reference, and your own preference, for example is the glass half empty, or half full.  Then you must remember that ANY statistic is only as good as its input numbers.  Garbage In Garbage Out  GIGO.  That means skewed, flawed, or INCOMPLETE data means you get a flawed answer.  Keep that and the principle of Akum’s razor, which states all things being equal, the simplest answer is probably correct, in mind as you read the following.. PRex
Nice work on the math and the explanations. I agree, except for one important, yeh unmentioned point, the math and the doom and gloom predictions ARE NOT following that math. The “projections” are way out of whack with what is ACTUALLY happening.

I submit tat that can only mean one thing, The numbers, ie the sample size in the domain, is flawed. Probably WAY too few. I propose, and I will either be proven very right, or very wrong, there is no in between.

Bear with me, we now know that coved 19 was raging and unchecked in China as far back as July 2019. We first had alarm bells sounded by the young Chinese doctor, whose name escapes me, and who later died from coved 19 . He was raising the alarm as far back as August 2019.

That means that the virus was raging in China as far back as AT LEAST that time frame. Bear in mind further, that Trump did not halt travel to and from China until JANUARY 2020, and that was not implemented until mid January 2020’ despite protests from the dems, the WHO, and UN.

Also, keep in mind that there were no such limits enacted ANYWHERE else, including Italy, South Korea, Iran, or other hot beds.

That means, that for at least 90 days, thanks to Chinese CCP hiding, lying, and secrecy, we, and the rest of the WORLD were secretly exposed to this new, virulent, unknown, virus, UNABATED..

We the did not even KNOW we had it coming in from China and the other hotbeds. We were almost all assuredly exposed, and had it transmitted WIDELY, yet we didn’t even notice until thanks to China and South Korea began openly acknowledging that they had a problem.

This was in late December of 2019.

That means my friends, for @90 days, and at LEAST 30-40 days we all were widely exposed all over this country, and no one knew it. It was TOTALLY UNABATED. There were people coming and going freely from all the hot beds of China, South Korea, Italy, and even Iran (students). That my friends means that this virus was literally everywhere, from colleges and schools, to big cities, to small towns, and no one knew it.

Now given the postulated gestation of 2 to 3 weeks, and even as much as a month, with little to no symptoms, but still contagious, I submit that we have ALREADY apexed. Why did we NOT have panic then? Because, this is the height of cold, flu, and allergy season, MOST people who got it, simply chocked it up to one of those things, which are COMMON, WIDESPREAD, NORMAL, and EXPECTED this time of year. Most probably already self quarantined, self medicated, or went to the doctor, andwed were misdiagnosed as the seasonal flu, or even a cold.

Why can I say this with confidence? Because according to both the CDC, WHO, and those interviewed, 80%, that is 8 out of every 10 cases have MILD to NO symptoms. Now factor in that this same virus seems to ONLY infect 1% of adolescents, and LESS than 1% of children younger than 10, and you start to see why I believe we almost all have certainly either had it or ALREADY been exposed.

The only people who seem dramatically affected are the 20% that are either elderly (above 70), or who have preexisting health issues that make them highly subseptable to respiratory illness. These are the people that would up in hospitals or have passed away. Factor in that with the fact that still over 50% of the deaths occurred in ONE critical care elderly facility in Washington state, and you start to see the reasons why the doom and gloom exponential hypothesis is NOT matching the real numbers on the ground.

Then you have to factor that not everyone is or WILL BE tested, further skewing the numbers. ONLY the symptomatic are being tested, and we know that up to 80% of infected NEVER have symptoms or they are so mild they are discounted as something else. You then have to see the problems with the exponential hypothesis.

This is not even factoring in the reliability of the testing, false negatives, OR false positives, which would further dilute the numbers.

The reason, imho, that we are not aligning are multiple. One ONLY the 20% who are symptomatic or need hospital care are being reported both HERE and the WORLD with the possible exceptions of Taiwan and Bahrain, which are mandatorily testing their entire populations. That means that here and in the world 80% are NOT being tested, OR reported, because they have little to no symptoms.

Two, the reliability’s of the tests, coupled with mis diagnosis by either people themselves or doctors that were not aware on coved 19, and compounded by the large percentage of a symptomatic people, AND the VERY low percentage of children affected , further skew the numbers.

Lastly, couple all that with the fact that no one seems to accurately know the true gestation period, or reliably when patient zero happened, which means we do NOT know when first exposures happened. Now you couple that with the secrecy, and negligence of China, and having open travel to and from hotspots for weeks if not MONTHS, and you start to see that the numbers we are being given, which are NOT adding up, shows that there is a DEFINATE problem with the model.

The very fact that no one seems to report, recognize, or even consider that possibility is troubling to say the least.
Notice we are ONLY being given the absolute worst case scenarios, and then you see why my spider senses are in overdrive.

Several actions by the cabal, and their sycophant msm, only further my suspicions. One, the abject politicization of the issue by the dems and msm, never let a crisis go to waste. Two the 24/7 hysteria being pumped out by the majority of the msm, so much so that the public was scared into a run on Hanna sanitizer and toilet paper, even though diarrhea is NOT one of the symptoms of coved 19.

Couple that with the blame games, mixed messages of gloom by a bevy of “health officials” and the MASSIVE attacks on the stock market (short sells) and the overreactions of closing major sports, you start to see a pattern,.

Then you realize it is an election year, and the opposition coordinating and fostering the hysteria to panic the people, are the same party that is openly running a candidate in the early to mid stages of dementia, after having DISASTROUS failures in a shampeachment, primary in Iowa, and a mosh pit of a debate, not to mention obvious collusion against candidate Sanders AGAIN, and you start to see an agenda to induce as much panic and fear in the public to tank a roaring economy, lay blame on a President for something that is literally uncontrollable, AND take the focus off their own electoral processes and candidates.

Then came the icing that cemented my suspicions. In rapid succession, the dems opposed Trump’s very reasonable ban of travel to and from the new hotbed of virus activity Europe, even trying to get an injunction. Then, and remember this is a level 10 crisis according to them, they were at first opposing Trump’s measures, attacking them, and were going to go on recess (vacation) having done NOTHING, until McConnell called them out and stopped the Senate recess. Nancy had to then come back, and pass something.

Was it serious? Apparently not, as the dems felt the need to load up the bill with all sorts of unrelated and unnecessary pork like funding for abortion and food stamps. When Trump and the REPS called them on it, they had to backtrack, and cobble something together in the dead of night to pass, they had NO sense of urgency, other than to get to their vacations. Tells one ALL one needs to know.

For all these reasons, the fuzzy and skewed projections using at best a skewed sample size of those 20% who were affected seriously enough to be tested, die, or be hospitalized, while NOT taking into account the 80% who are not tested due to no or mild symptoms, the NOT factoring of not knowing, when, where, and how many were infected before we shut off the travel, and who the infected interacted with,where, and when, let alone how many. Then coupled with the obvious hysteria pumping, plus coordinated attacks on the economy, and you start to see a very clear picture, an AN AGENDA, and it has nothing to do with protecting we the people.

We simply have NO way of knowing when, where, and how many people have been infected, and have already spread it and recovered. I submit it may be tens of thousands if not millions, and we are already past the apex, and that is why the projections are not jibing. Is it over. No, but I think it was FAR less severe than we are being led to believe, and no where near the hysteria and panic we are enduring.

Time will tell, one thing I know, if I am wrong, it will prove out in the next month, and I will admit I am and was wrong. But, if I am right, I submit that people will NOT be very happy or go gentle into the good night when they learn that they were scammed in the biggest, most serious hoax of all time, NOT the virus, that is very real, but the hysteria is nearly 100% created. If I am right, will the hoaxers that sent this country into a panic apologize? Will they be held to account for the damage they caused?

This, if I am right, will have far reaching consequences. Think of the boy that cried wolf, and what happened to him. What happens IF this event is proven overblown? The next time, we may face a REAL killer pandemic, one where instead of 20% having severe symptoms, 80% do, but people WON’T believe it, because of the hysteria THIS time, THAT is the inherent danger in pumping undo hysteria based on projection with FAR too many unknown variables to be remotely accurate. If these projections were right, then China would have MILLIONS of cases, not 80000. Think of the conditions, living arrangements, poor healthcare, squalor, sanitation, etc, and they by all accounts are nearly done, South Korea as well, though they are light rears ahead of China, they still have a dense population, many in less than ideal conditions.

I still also find it VERY strange that places in Africa, Mexico, Latin and South America have reported LESS THAN 10 cases, if true, then warm wet weather must wreck havoc on this particular virus, like most others, and by mid April, the bulk of cases will decline rapidly here as well.

There are too many “odd” things about this virus, too many unknowns, or un reported, and FAR too much hysteria. I will get ripped for this, but there is no way this virus was from nature’s kitchen. I am with wolf on that, which means that this virus was man made, and it was man introduced, and therefore it is also man hyped.

I hope all are well, and this is not to dismiss the virus, or it’s potential to kill, it is meant to promote critical thinking of the doom and gloom hype surrounding it. Remember the same people promoting the hype are the same people that produced the Russia hoax and say that we are all dead from climate change in less than 12 years. Were it found that this virus, and others like it die in warm wet conditions, I wonder what the climate change people will say then, that would tell you ALL you need to know. Remember this STILL is not about the health and safety of the American people to the cabal, it is simply a means to an ends to them, and their actions proved it.